LICK YOUR WOUNDS TRADERS VOLATILE WEEK IN OFFERING

Even though earnings started coming last market was not highly influenced by these .But this week it will not be same .We have HIGH impact data's from entire world market,earnings,Presidential debate on 16thand  Expiry on 19th.

See below Ecnomic Data points for World Market

 

Date	Country	Event	Impact	Previous	Consensus
Monday Oct 15, 01:30	China	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	2.00%	1.90%
Tuesday Oct 16, 01:30	Australia	RBA Meeting's Minutes	High
Tuesday Oct 16, 08:30	United Kingdom	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	2.50%
Tuesday Oct 16, 08:30	United Kingdom	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	2.10%
Tuesday Oct 16, 09:00	Germany	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	High	-18.2	-16
Tuesday Oct 16, 09:00	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	2.60%
Tuesday Oct 16, 09:00	European Monetary Union	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	High	-3.8
Tuesday Oct 16, 09:00	European Monetary Union	Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)	High	1.50%
Tuesday Oct 16, 12:30	United States	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	1.70%
Wednesday Oct 17, 08:30	United Kingdom	Bank of England Minutes	High
Wednesday Oct 17, 08:30	United Kingdom	Claimant Count Change	High	-15
Thursday Oct 18, 00:00	European Monetary Union	EU Extraordinary Economic Summit	High
Thursday Oct 18, 02:00	China	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	High	7.60%
Thursday Oct 18, 14:00	United States	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey	Medium
Friday Oct 19, 00:00	European Monetary Union	EU Extraordinary Economic Summit	High
Friday Oct 19, 06:00	Germany	Producer Price Index (YoY)	High

India Clients have WPI inflation on monday (last time it was 7.55%) and on Friday Forex Reserve stat (last figure was $295.04)

All the Best and Enjoy Trading

 

KINGFISHER AIRLINES NEWS AND CHARTS

After governments announcement of FDI in aviation most of airlines stock jump,even high debt Kingfisher moved from 7.40 to 14.15 with in few days,So question is ,SHOULD I BUY it now or we will get much cheaper coming months ?

Let see chart

 After 7.4 low Stock made a sharp move to 11.9(first top),then it correct again but didn't gone below 7.4 ,indicator started diverging (not in graph),then it made a new high of 14.15 ,now there is news floating about 6.6% stake sale of KFA to a foreign carrier ,so it can move even to 17-18 levels.Chart shows a resistance band of 18-28 it will be  breaking only after  a conform news from company .(On Sep 26 there is AGM also).Value buyer will come in to counter above 28 levels. Speculator who taken stock from lows will sell it near 20-28 levels.

NOWADAYS ITS ALL ABOUT GAPS IN NIFTY

(Click Chart for an enlarge view)

Above Chart shows daily chart of nifty from august 2011 till sep 21 2012.There are many Gap's in NIFTY chart.As per technical analysis market always fill GAP's ,expect GAP's formed in last two weeks all other GAP's filled and market gone below. Yellowish marking on the right side shows a GAP is filled but market didn't closed below Gap candle ,we can see How bullish is  NIFTY  after that.

NIFTY can be brought on dip till it close below 5430 levels and a near term target of 5850.

Economic Calendar For Sep 17, 2012-Sep 21, 2012

After high volume and high voltage news from FED and ECB ,next week we have high impact data from UK,Japan,Canada,Australia.

Please see  check list below

Date	Country	Event	Impact	Previous
Tuesday Sep 18, 01:30	Australia	RBA Meeting's Minutes	High
Tuesday Sep 18, 08:30	United Kingdom	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	2.60%
Tuesday Sep 18, 08:30	United Kingdom	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	2.30%
Tuesday Sep 18, 09:00	Germany	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	High	-25.5
Wednesday Sep 19, 03:00	Japan	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	High	0.10%
Wednesday Sep 19, 03:00	Japan	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement and press conference	High
Wednesday Sep 19, 08:30	United Kingdom	Bank of England Minutes	High
Wednesday Sep 19, 22:45	New Zealand	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	High	2.40%
Thursday Sep 20, 05:00	Japan	Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey	High
Friday Sep 21, 12:30	Canada	Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)	High	1.70%
Friday Sep 21, 12:30	Canada	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High	1.30%

For Indian Clients
Even though impact on world market is low ,these data's will make NSE & BSE volatile.

Date	Country	Event	Impact	Previous
Monday Sep 17, 05:30	India	RBI Interest Rate Decision (Repo Rate)	Low	8.00%
Monday Sep 17, 05:30	India	Reserve Repo Rate	Low	7.00%
Monday Sep 17, 05:30	India	Cash Reserve Ratio	Low	4.75%
Tuesday Sep 18, 11:30	India	M3 Money Supply	Low	13.70%
Friday Sep 21, 11:30	India	Bank Loan Growth	Low	16.70%
Friday Sep 21, 11:30	India	FX Reserves, USD	Low	$292.04

FINALLY QE3 IS HERE WOW FACTOR MISSING

What a Week ? Two announcement for US people,Iphone5 and QE3 ,but both with out WOW factor.

Yes,after weeks and weeks of promise ,Fed Chairman finally given QE3.The policy, known as QE3, buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month.End of Purchase program is not supplied in statement,but we strongly believe ,FED don't want to give a NUMBER for this QE3 like few billion.In press conference also FED Chairman tried to keep it for a infinite time,He mentioned atleast  till unemployment rate come to a better level. What Level its in his mind only 

We are advising our clients to book profit in this bull move today and tomorrow ,come back next month.We are closely watching EURO which is moving to 1.30 levels a long term resistance.

MORE EASING TO FOLLOW WITH A "IF"

FOMC minutes is out,The Federal Reserve is likely to deliver another round of monetary stimulus "fairly soon" IF economy didn't  improves considerably.Again FED is asking for time ,knowing this investors  started profit booking yesterday itself ,even after breaking 1420 resistance ,market retraced to 1407 level yesterday itself.

Check Daily S&P chart below

Rising Wedge pattern is coming to an end ,and a break out (UP/DOWN )can happen.Those who can take bit more risk can stay in position till 10 DMA HOLD.So better to "BOOK PROFIT AND ENJOY WEEKENDS AND  ,COME BACK AFTER LABOUR DAY"

NIFTY MONTHLY CHART ANALYSIS

Monthly chart reading shows a resistance near to 5380-5400,there is eight day's of trading left in this contract,so a break out of this levels with better global clues can take market to 5520 ,if market couldn't hold then we can see levels of 5200-5250 levels before expiry.NIFTY can take in a tight 120-170 levels till this expiry if it didn't breakout.Worst case scenario it can move to 5050 levels towards downside.(UNEXPECTED BAD GLOBAL NEWS ONLY will trigger this)

STRATEGY TO TRADE

Because of shorter trading day left in this contract go for a LONG STRADDLE (BUY A CALL AND PUT OF SAME STRIKE PRICE )(Unlimited profit minimum risk )

Total spend has to be maximum of  75  (ie,75*50=3750),but this has to be done wisely ,till end of Tuesday's trading we must have two position standing).TARGET of position combined is 145.
STOP LOSS for combined position is 25

LONDON OLYMPICS 2012 AND RALLY IN FTSE

Past two three weeks markets around the world was good for bullish investors.If you look back there was no major bullish data points,NO QE3,NO ECB action (there was a "What ever "from ECB chairman)NO stimulus from CHINA.Yes one think was there all these weeks Olympics in LONDON . Hope of spending in such a major event also can trigger a rally. India investors and traders are looked in a 400-500 range in NIFTY because of indian government policy paralysis.Traders can trade in S&P and FTSE futures which are listed in NSE .FTSE is better because of we can trade atleast 3 hours before market close and have volume compared to S&P Futures.


Check FTSE in EOD below

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#symbol=^ftse;range=6m;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;



Like to know FTSE value in real time ?check this link below

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/futsee.php


Disclamier :We have long positions in major indices Futures.